US Long-dated Treasuries Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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08:48
Sep 17
Sep 17
Long-dated Treasuries risk premium rising.
Long-term US Treasury yields are increasingly driven by a risk premium because US debt and deficits are becoming less sustainable, investors demand more compensation to lend, and other sovereigns are competing for demand. Treasuries are no longer viewed as a safe asset, making long-dated Treasuries unattractive.
HIGH
07:02
Sep 01
Sep 01
Long-term Treasury yields stay elevated
The long end of the Treasury market is likely to stay sticky because the market is skeptical that the US can manage its fiscal deficit and bend it down, so investors are demanding more compensation; without fundamental reforms, long yields may remain near 5-5.5%.
MED
12:36
Aug 27
Aug 27
Long-dated yields may rise after suppression.
If the Fed appears dovish or aligned with Treasury efforts to hold long-dated yields down, the market may treat long-dated yields as artificially engineered lower, and the punishment could be yields moving back up.
MED
07:43
Aug 26
Aug 26
Long bonds seeing near-term relief signs.
Declining oil prices signal slightly slower inflation and support the long end of the Treasury curve; swap spreads show Treasuries outperforming interest-rate swaps, options markets are stabilizing, and Citadel reportedly flipped more bullish on long bonds, pointing to near-term relief for long-dated bonds. Longer term, he expects higher yields in a higher-rate economy.
MED
10:00
Aug 21
Aug 21
Capital demand pushes yields higher.
The world is demanding so much capital, including heavy Treasury issuance, private sector borrowing, sticky inflation, and war-related price effects, that the bond market must reprice and ration capital through higher yields. This is pushing rates higher, not lower.
HIGH
21:00
Aug 20
Aug 20
Long-dated Treasury yields will drift higher.
Longer-dated Treasury yields will likely drift higher because the underlying real economy appears strong enough for the market to focus on term premium and issuance concerns, unless there is a fundamental change to the deficit.
MED
14:46
Aug 20
Aug 20
Buyback won't stop higher long-term yields.
The Treasury buyback is an important but tactical move; it does not change the fundamentals. Large fiscal deficits and a Fed on the sidelines are what drive longer-term Treasury yields higher.
HIGH
05:54
Aug 20
Aug 20
Massive fiscal deficits will drive yields higher.
The recent Treasury buyback announcement only temporarily lowers long-end yields; yields will continue to grind higher due to overly wide US fiscal borrowing requirements, a projected 6% deficit over the next decade, and competition from AI hyperscalers aggressively issuing long-dated bonds.
HIGH
18:36
Aug 19
Aug 19
Buybacks cannot stop structurally higher long rates.
Treasury buybacks can manage the shape of the curve day to day, but they cannot change the underlying fundamentals. As long as the US is in a huge AI boom and a huge government borrowing boom, interest rates will be high somewhere, probably everywhere, in the curve; the fundamentals are higher long rates. Real rates, not inflation breakevens, are driving the rise because AI capital spending and government borrowing are voracious demand for capital that crowds out other uses.
HIGH
09:08
Jun 30
Jun 30
Long-term bond yields stay high on heavy supply
US long-term Treasury yields will remain elevated and not fall easily, despite declining inflation, because of heavy bond supply in the market. The large fiscal deficit and ongoing issuance create a supply overhang that keeps long-term rates high. This persistent rate pressure will gradually weigh on the economy, particularly housing and weaker consumer sectors, and could eventually force the Fed to consider easing only later in 2024. In the meantime, long bond prices face headwinds.
MED
19:53
Jun 17
Jun 17
Stay underweight duration.
Inflation is expected to remain persistent and broader than many anticipate, making it premature to extend duration in portfolios; yields are likely to stay elevated.
MED
14:53
Feb 09
Feb 09
China diversification pressures long-dated Treasuries.
China's regulators are pushing banks to reduce US Treasury exposure as part of a gradual strategic diversification away from US assets. Although the immediate Treasury reaction has been muted and bank holdings are less consequential than state holdings, the shift should weigh on long-dated Treasuries over the longer term; with the 30-year yield near 4.90%, risks are skewed toward higher yields.
HIGH
About US Long-dated Treasuries Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks US Long-dated Treasuries across 4 sources: 1 bullish vs 9 bearish calls from 11 authors. Historical directional balance: -67% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 12 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 1 bearish. Latest voices: Vincent Mortier, Robert Kaplan, Ven Ram.